SoftBank's OpenAI Loan Just Got Cut by 40%. Lenders Don't Trust the Valuation.
SoftBank slashed its OpenAI-backed margin loan from $10B to $6B after lenders balked at pricing a private AI company.
Three days ago, SoftBank wanted to borrow $10 billion against its OpenAI shares. Now it is looking at $6 billion, and the number could still drop.
Bloomberg first reported Thursday that SoftBank has scaled back its planned margin loan by 40% after multiple lenders got cold feet. The reason is straightforward: banks are not comfortable putting a reliable price tag on a private company, even one that calls itself the most valuable startup in history. When the collateral backing your loan cannot be marked to a public market price on any given day, lenders get nervous. Several did.
The Mechanics of Betting on Private AI
The deal is structured as a margin loan: SoftBank puts up its OpenAI stake as collateral, borrows against it, and uses the cash for general corporate purposes and additional AI investments. The loan would run for two years, with an option to extend for a third. SoftBank first invested in OpenAI in September 2024 and took out a separate $40 billion bridge loan in March 2026 to fund additional OpenAI investments.
The problem is not OpenAI's revenue. The company is reportedly generating $25 billion in annualized revenue and growing fast. The problem is that "growing fast" and "reliably worth $730 billion" are different claims, and lenders care about the second one. OpenAI's valuation doubled in 10 months, from roughly $300 billion to $730 billion. That trajectory makes equity investors salivate and debt underwriters sweat.
Why This Matters Beyond SoftBank
This is the first major signal that traditional finance is drawing a line on private AI valuations. Venture capital rounds can price companies at whatever the last investor agreed to pay. Debt markets are different. Banks lending against collateral need to model downside scenarios, and "what is OpenAI worth if revenue growth slows" is a question that produces wildly different answers depending on who you ask.
The timing is also notable. OpenAI is reportedly targeting an IPO in late 2026 at a valuation approaching $1 trillion, with Goldman Sachs advising. If lenders are balking at OpenAI's private valuation now, public market investors will be watching the discount carefully. Meanwhile, the Musk v. OpenAI trial, now entering its third week in Oakland, adds legal uncertainty that no margin loan model can easily price.
SoftBank and OpenAI declined to comment, according to Reuters. The final loan number could still shift as negotiations continue. But the direction of the shift tells you something: when the smartest money in AI gets told "your collateral might not be worth what you think it is," the rest of the market should take notes.